Insights from DNV’s Global Outlook to 2050
DNV’s latest CCS Outlook to 2050 sets out a clear message: carbon capture and storage (CCS) is no longer theoretical, no longer niche, and no longer just around the corner. It is here, scaling rapidly, and increasingly central to decarbonisation strategies across high-emitting industries. Yet, as the report and today’s webinar made clear, CCS is only one piece of the net-zero puzzle.
For Nellie Technologies and the broader carbon management ecosystem, the takeaways signal both significant opportunity, but not without it’s challenges.
The Rapid Growth of CCS and Its Defined Boundaries
The numbers are compelling. Global CCS capacity is expected to quadruple by 2030, rising from 62 active facilities today to more than 270. This surge is concentrated in North America and Europe, driven by a mix of government policy, corporate net-zero targets, and large-scale infrastructure investment.
By 2030, DNV forecasts that six percent of global CO₂ emissions will be captured through CCS. By 2050, that figure grows significantly but still leaves a major emissions gap.
In other words, CCS will be essential for net zero, but not sufficient. It is not the whole solution. It is the safety net, the bridge, and the backup plan, particularly for sectors where direct emissions reductions remain technically or economically out of reach.
Focusing on the Unavoidable: Industry, Energy, and Cement
The Outlook clearly defines where CCS will be most impactful. These are not speculative sectors, they are the heavy industrial emitters already facing pressure to decarbonise:
Manufacturing: 536 million tonnes of CO₂ per year by 2050
Power generation: 231 million tonnes per year by 2050
Cement: 110 million tonnes per year by 2050
Maritime shipping: 109 million tonnes per year, with 15% of emissions captured
Chemical production: with the United States leading early via the 45Q tax credit, and Europe catching up by 2040
These are the sectors that cannot rely on electrification alone. For these industries, CCS is not optional; it is essential.
The Role of Carbon Dioxide Removal Within the CCS Landscape
Strikingly, the report positions carbon dioxide removal as a quarter of total captured volumes by 2050, which is a major signal for companies like Nellie operating in the permanent removal space. While CCS focuses on point source emissions from existing infrastructure, removal represents the net negative component: the cleanup operation that balances out residual emissions and legacy carbon debt.
The distinction is crucial. CCS mitigates emissions; removal reverses them. Both are needed. But in a world aiming for net zero and beyond, the demand for verifiable, durable removal will only grow.
Market Barriers Still Hold but the Foundations Are Strengthening
Despite the impressive scaling forecast, DNV was realistic about the obstacles still facing CCS:
Capital intensity: projects are large, long term, and expensive
Public perception: concerns about storage safety, biodiversity, and permanence remain
Policy fragmentation: cross border regulation, especially for transport and storage, remains underdeveloped
Investor caution: there is money on the table, but confidence requires predictability
Yet there are reasons for optimism. The report noted eighty billion dollars in CCS investment expected by 2030, and highlighted how policy levers such as tax credits, procurement frameworks, and state backed projects like Norway’s Northern Lights are reducing risk and creating bankable models.
This reflects a familiar shift: governments creating the conditions for scale, and the private sector responding.
Policy, Permanence, and the Parallel with Removal Markets
For those operating in the removal space, direct parallels are to be drawn. As CCS scales for industry, removal providers must continue proving durability, integrity, and traceability, the very qualities that emerging regulation in Europe is beginning to prioritise.
The CCS market is laying the groundwork that the removal sector can build on:
Long term offtake contracts
Contracts for difference to guarantee minimum pricing
Cross border transport and registry integration
These mechanisms, discussed throughout the webinar, are about more than emissions; they are about confidence. And as the market matures, that confidence will define which companies thrive.
CCS Is the Floor, Not the Ceiling
If there is one takeaway from DNV’s Outlook, it is this: CCS will be a core pillar of industrial decarbonisation, but it will not get us to net zero alone. It buys time, locks in progress, and tackles the unavoidable. But it needs to be paired with direct removals, energy system transformation, and behavioural change.
For companies like Nellie, this is a signal that carbon management is becoming mainstream and that removal technologies are next in line to scale.
The challenge now is to ensure that scale is accompanied by rigour, transparency, and climate integrity. Because if CCS is the foundation, removal is the future.
